Annual Federal Cigar Poll Kicks Off

Source from:  By JOSH ROSENSON jrosenson@fosters.com Tuesday, October 28, 2008 10/30/2008

The Federal Cigar kicked off the Federal Forecast Monday. "(Former Sen.) Gary Hart (D-Colo.) was a nobody and he was identified first by the voters of New Hampshire through the Federal Forecast. He won the New Hampshire (presidential) primary," in 1984, former owner of Federal Cigar and New Castle resident Leonard Seagren said. The 1984 primary was the first time the forecast was conducted. In 1988, Hart ran again and immediately dropped out of the presidential race, Seagren said, "Because he was caught on a yacht called 'Monkey Business' with babes." The forecast has been conducted since 1984 for all the national primaries and all the national, state and local elections, Seagren said. A sign in the store window on Ladd Street says "Federal Forecast Vote Here and Learn." Seagren said the goal is not to predict the outcome, but to advise citizens and generate interest in the election. "It's been surprisingly exciting for me because so many people don't know who is running. So many people come into (the) store and I give them the book of matches, they turn their back to the paper bags and throw their matches over their shoulder, indicating to me that's the way they vote - they make random choices. That is basically what I'm trying to avoid. I want people to make more thoughtful choices," he said. "The idea is for the voters to actually come and find out who the candidates are. That is the reason I do this, to hopefully make the people more knowledgeable." A ballot from the city of Portsmouth is also available for people to view at Federal Cigar. Seagren tells people the Federal Forecast is a non-binding vote, and if people don't like the results of the forecast, they should go to the polls on Nov. 4 and make a difference. Smokers have decreased in numbers, but Seagren said the forecast has been consistently accurate. He said over the years, the forecast has been about 80 percent accurate. In the store, a dozen brown paper bags line a wall, each with the candidates' name, party, and a red line for Republicans and a blue line for Democrats. The vice presidential candidates are listed as well. Above the bags, the races are labeled. A quick peek in the bags showed what appeared to be some pretty close races. As of Monday afternoon, Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama appeared to hold a slight lead over Republican nominee Sen. John McCain. In the gubernatorial race, Democratic incumbent John Lynch had a commanding lead over Republican challenger Joseph D. Kenney. The race for U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent John E. Sununu and Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen appeared close, as did the race for the U.S. Congress between Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter and Republican challenger Jeb Bradley. Democratic incumbent Beverly A. Hollingworth and Republican Russell Prescott for executive councilor appeared to be a close race, as did the contest for state Senate between Democratic incumbent Martha Fuller Clark and Republican challenger Christian Callahan. Seagren, the former owner of Federal Cigar will continue to conduct the forecast as long as the current owner Rick Gadway allows. Enditem