Tobacco Ads Paying off in Oregon

Source from:  businessweek.com By JULIA SILVERMAN October 2, 2007 10/08/2007

The millions of dollars that big tobacco companies are spending on advertisements aimed at convincing Oregonians to vote against a proposed cigarette tax hike appear to be paying off. Activists on both sides of the issue say the onslaught of TV and radio ads has gotten Oregonians to think twice about Measure 50, which would increase cigarette taxes to pay for health insurance for about 100,000 Oregon children currently without coverage. "They have the ability, because of their money, to narrow what was an enormous advantage," said Carol Butler, who is running the Healthy Kids Oregon campaign, which supports the measure. Early polling showed the measure passing easily, a comfort for Democrats in the Oregon Legislature, who referred the proposal to this November's ballot and wrote the description of the measure that will appear in the voters' pamphlet. But tobacco companies, including Altria Group, the parent company of Philip Morris, and R.J. Reynolds, have collectively contributed about $4.5 million to fight the proposal, and more money could be forthcoming. "If they do a last-minute dump of money in the last couple of weeks, we will want to compete," said J.L. Wilson, a spokesman for Oregonians Against the Blank Check, one of the tobacco industry-funded groups behind the anti-tax campaign. "My feeling is that this is not going to be a cakewalk. We weren't going to give this away for free." Right now, the tobacco companies have an ad in heavy rotation that questions the wisdom of making the tobacco tax a part of the Oregon Constitution. If voters approve the 84.5 cent per-pack rise in the state's cigarette tax, it would become the only tax permanently enshrined in the constitution. The Democrat-controlled Legislature placed the tax on the Nov. 6 ballot as a constitutional amendment because it couldn't attract enough Republican votes to enact the tax outright, or even refer it to voters as a change in existing law. Supporters of the tax, who are running their own ads, said they are not surprised that support for the tax has leveled off in the last few weeks. Butler said the tobacco companies have already spend $1.5 million on television ads. "It is impossible for that not to have an effect," she said. "People are going to see their ads, and it will cause conversation among voters." Supporters of the expanded health care coverage have raised almost $1.4 million, much of the money coming from hospitals and health insurance companies, and spent about $460,000 on television ad buys. Portland pollster Mike Riley surveyed 406 voters about the measure in August. Though 64 percent of Democrats told Riley they would back the measure, just 47 percent of unaffiliated voters said they were on board, not statistically different from the 44 percent of Republicans who were planning to vote for the proposal. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. Overall, 53 percent of voters backed the children's health care expansion in the August poll, compared with 28 percent who said they would vote against it and 19 percent who said they hadn't made up their minds. "It's much easier to defeat a measure than pass a measure," Riley said. "A ballot measure starting at 53 percent and trying to hold onto a majority will have a tough time." With less money, supporters of the tax for health care expansion have had to be strategic about how they spend their money. Opponents, by contrast, have blanketed the state, even sending active Democrats a letter billed as being from a Salem elementary school teacher arguing against the tax. But Butler said her side would be casting a wider net in the weeks before the election. "We knew we would be outspent very badly," she said. "We had to conserve our resources until a time that voters would be paying attention." The tobacco industry poured $60 million into a successful effort to persuade voters in California to vote down a tobacco tax increase last year. Enditem