How Long Can the Old Man Last?

Source from:  Financial Gazette (Harare) December 1, 2005 Ken Mufuka 12/02/2005

THIS week I was asked to make a presentation on Zimbabwe to a mixed group. The question was how long the old man, President Robert Mugabe (82) can last? I will here give you the American view. Americans believe that every country is great or small according to how much its economy can provide for its people. The US State Department, therefore, has done lots of research on the vulnerability of the Zimbabwe economy and found certain areas that make up Zimbabwe's feet of clay. Since the year 2000, US tobacco businessmen, Reynolds, Brown and other associates have attacked Zimbabwe tobacco sales on two fronts. First, they say that the quality of their tobacco is below that of Malawi and Mozambique and secondly, that the amount of their tobacco has declined to below one third of what it was. This, of course, is associated with the departure of European tobacco farmers. With this attack, they have reduced Zimbabwe's foreign intake from U$600 million to below U$200 million this year. Similarly, the US State Department has issued three warnings in two years, scaring American visitors from touring Zimbabwe, thus reducing the revenue inflows there from U$750 million to U$150 million (1999-2004). The US State Department assumes that the real Achilles heel is the petrol crunch. This Achilles heel works in tandem with the value of the Zim dollar. I mentioned last week that there are some informants who have sworn to me that the parallel market is being fuelled by British and American intelligence agencies. Whether true or not, the reality on the ground is that huge amounts of diaspora money never go through the Zimbabwe central bank. The nature of the parallel market is difficult for the reserve bank to manipulate. The resulting inflation it generates at home sees the dollar value of a fuel tank rising from Z$1 million the first week of November to Z$3 million in only one week. The danger is that wise men do not want to keep Zimbabwean money for any length of time and businesses can collapse within a week if caught with outdated cash flows in their treasuries. So, the Americans argue that without fuel, and bus fares going yo-yo, the old man cannot survive for any length of time. My information was that six months was a suggested length of shelf stay. That is the American view. The British view is rather different. With long colonial experience, the British hoped that when the economy reaches such low levels of sustainability, something unhappy will happen and the old man will find himself in an unsustainable position. However, this theory is called the Imperial Staff College proposition. Between 1960 and 1980 former colonies allowed their military staff to be trained at the Imperial Military College in Britain. Dr Kwame Nkrumah, in his book, Dark Days in Ghana, realised that such a situation allowed imperialists to infiltrate the military ranks. All the old boys who precipitated coups in former British West Africa had contacts with Sandhurst or the Imperial Staff College. President Mugabe has learned this lesson and is surrounded by Chinese-trained intelligence agents. A document leaked from some British intelligence says that they found President Mugabe's intelligence impenetrable. Therefore, other methods must be used. In this regard, the British follow the Americans. It has been assumed that this "little matter" would be settled in no time at all, but it has dragged for over five years now. Unfortunately, the Americans are ignorant of the African psyche. Nevertheless, they are now following a scorched earth policy. As long as President Mugabe holds sway in Zimbabwe, there will be no revival of the monetary value of the Zim dollar. This effectively kills the wealth and pensions of any Zimbabwean who keeps his money in his country. The governor of the World Bank, Mr C Wolfowitz, a Bush neo-conservative strongman, has sworn to teach Zimbabwe a lesson so that no other African country will dare follow its example. Meanwhile Zimbabwe itself is atavistically returning to its natural kind. Half the traffic lights don't work. Just outside police headquarters on MUGABE Way in Harare is a large three-foot square pothole. The police commissioners dodge and by-pass it as if it is a lawful traffic sign. I saw a young girl with six German soap bars stopped by police for hoarding. She was lucky she was not locked up, but she did not take the bars of soap home. I am uncertain if the soap was kept at Police Headquarters as evidence. Similarly, in Victoria Falls three young men ran away from a police search unit, leaving their wheel-barrow full of tomatoes. The police loaded them into their truck, presumably to be produced at a court date. As people no longer distinguish what is right from wrong, the Nigerianisation of the economy is complete with its non-operative ethical standards. If Nigerianisation takes place, what was formally considered wrong becomes the norm and the possibility of a revolt further slips away. Enditem