U.S. Sees Smallest Ky. Tobacco Crop Since 1927

Source from:  By Bruce Schreiner The Associated Press LOUISVILLE 08/16/2005

Kentucky's first burley tobacco crop since the federal tobacco program ended is expected to produce the smallest harvest in nearly 80 years. Government forecasters predicted statewide production of 142.5 million pounds as of Aug. 1, down 31 percent from last year's crop. Also, this year's burley harvest will cover an estimated 75,000 acres statewide, the lowest total on record and down from last year's 106,000 acres. Experts say two factors are to blame: the loss of producers after the buyout of the federal tobacco price-support system, plus a summer drought that stunted growth of some tobacco. "Some of the people looked at the economics of the prices they were offered and decided that wasn't enough to suit them," said University of Kentucky tobacco specialist Gary Palmer. "Some of those people hung on the last few years hoping for this buyout," Palmer said. "When it came, they had no intention of growing any more tobacco." The acreage decline is coupled with smaller yields in the nation's top burley state. Kentucky's burley yield is expected to average 1,900 pounds an acre, the government said, down 50 pounds from 2004 and below the 2,100-pound average over the past 25 years. Across burley producing states, production was forecast at 203.7 million pounds, off 30 percent from a year ago. Average yields were pegged at 1,893 pounds an acre, down 15 pounds from 2004. Burley growers planned to harvest 107,600 acres, a 30 percent drop from last season. In Kentucky, tobacco observers had expected higher-than-average yields, if the weather had cooperated, since many lower-producing farmers exited the business after the buyout. "We could have compensated some for the loss of growers just by increases in yield if there had been a little bit more favorable weather," Palmer said. "It wouldn't have taken much. Just a few more rains strategically occurring would have been a profound difference on this crop." Palmer said a 1,900-pound average would rank this year's crop as "one of the bad ones." And that has tobacco farmers worried about how much of an appetite tobacco companies will have for their leaf, without the security blanket of the tobacco program. "This is kind of a feeling-out period between the growers and the companies right now," said Will Snell, a UK tobacco economist. "This drought just added another twist to the uncertainty." How farmers are treated at market later this year could determine whether some are willing to grow another crop, Snell said. The companies do have access to surplus tobacco stocks. "But make no mistake about it, there is going to be some more shakeout in terms of producers exiting after this year," he said. Tobacco farmers will be crunching the numbers, seeing what kind of profit they can muster from their labor-intensive enterprise in this post-buyout era, he said. "As long as the incentives provided by the companies are there, I certainly anticipate more production and more acres in coming years," Snell said. Enditem