Tobacco Target: A Tall Order

Source from:  Zimbabwe Standard (Harare) 09/08/2004

THERE is need to be realistic in setting targets for tobacco production during the 2004/2005 season. The Zimbabwe Association of Tobacco Growers (ZATG) and other authorities have set the target for tobacco production next year at an ambitious 150 million kg. The problem with this estimate is that it ignores the fact that during the past four years production of the crop has been in a free fall. [img border=0 hspace="4" vspace="4" align="left" src=http://www.tobaccochina.com/english/picture/05-17-2004_F1_biz_0517bee4.jpg] In 2000, the year of the start of land invasions, tobacco production stood at nearly 240 million kg. Last year, production of the crop had fallen by almost a third, to 80 million kg. That pattern of decline has been maintained with this year's crop registering a poor 65 million kg, a further decline in the size of the crop produced. The proposal put forward is that next season's crop is increased almost three-fold the size of this year's production. It is unclear whether the factors responsible for the decline in production during the past four years have been considered before arriving at the target for the next tobacco season. The causes of the free-fall in production have primarily been the invasions, which have disrupted farming activities on the previously large-scale commercial farms; inadequate funding for the new farmers delays in accessing loans; lack of machinery necessary to undertake higher levels of production; inability to access agricultural inputs such as seed, chemicals and fertilizers and the workforce to carry out farm production activities. There is an additional external dimension - the weather, which can have a decisive bearing on the scale and size of cropping patterns and activities. The assumption that has been made is that every new farmer allocated land by the government can perform as well as the previous farm owner. What this assumption overlooks are the skills and the workforce that are critical in making a success of farming activities. More than 200 000 of the estimated 350 000 farm workers who were active in 2000 have lost their jobs, while the remainder are not all in full-time employment because jobs available are seasonal, or where jobs are available the workforce has complained about poor working conditions. It is difficult to achieve the best results possible with disgruntled workers. It's harder when the said workers compare their new employers with the previous ones. The unfortunate impression is that while many of the displaced commercial farmers did not treat their workers that well, the new farmers come off as being less sympathetic to the plight of their workforce. That impacts negatively on productivity. For the suggested tobacco production targets for next season to have any meaning there is need to put focus on the graduates of the Farmer Development Trust (FDT) and graduates from the country's colleges of agriculture. If each of the graduates from these institutions is provided the land, the inputs and the funding, the level of production is likely to take off. There are also some remaining commercial farmers who have welcomed the idea that the land reform programme is, in part, about seeking to empower indigenous Zimbabweans and these commercial farmers have gone out of their way to try and assist. If those concerned about increasing levels of production are genuine in their quest to ensure the country achieves higher levels of productivity, this is the area they should be focusing their attention on. Cotton production has moved from the large-scale commercial growers to being a preserve of the smallholders because the growers continue to receive the necessary support in funding, in procurement of inputs, in support (extension) services and, of course, the price paid for their crops have been critical as an incentive. Zimbabwe realized US$130 million from the 65 million kg of tobacco sold this season. This represents probably a quarter of the potential foreign exchange earnings Zimbabwe could have realised this season. Unfortunately, the reduced foreign currency earnings affect the country's ability to import critical requirements such as fuel necessary to keep the economy on its feet, and medical drugs for the ailing health sector. By building on what it already has - FDT and agricultural graduates - Zimbabwe will have a realistic chance of nearing the set targets and in the process boosting the country's capacity to earn more foreign currency. Every time Zimbabwe misses an opportunity, it allows someone to capitalise on its shortcomings. Claiming back its share of the market is always going to be harder. Enditem