Zimbabwe: Writing is On the Wall

Source from:  Financial Gazette (Harare) 19 September 2007 09/21/2007

THE 2007/08 farming season, which will be upon us in a few weeks' time, will be a litmus test for the country's agricultural sector in that it offers the world yet another opportunity to see if indeed a measure of progress has been achieved in restoring Zimbabwe's breadbasket status as claimed by government officials. Despite predictions by meteorologists of high chances of normal to above normal rainfall throughout the country after a devastating dry spell last season, a sense of trepidation is emerging quite strongly in the court of public opinion. It is again feared that the country, neck-deep in the throes of an economic recession blamed on the controversial land seizures spearheaded by the war veterans in 2000, may not pass the litmus test for the umpteenth time. These fears, coming as the government struggles to feed an estimated 2.1 million people facing serious food shortages due to crop failure and escalating poverty, are predicated on an assessment of the country's state of preparedness ahead of the onset of the rains around November, which is pointing to a poor season. Another poor season will certainly worsen the plight of ordinary Zimbabweans, who are feeling the sharpest edge of the economic meltdown that has persisted for the past seven years. Seven years after the emotive farm expropriations, which government claims influenced European and western states' decision to slap President Robert Mugabe and his close lieutenants with targeted sanctions, the rough edges are still to smoothen for indigenous farmers who settled on the farms wrested from the minority whites. Uncertainty continues to hang over the security of tenure, amid reports of fresh farm seizures, acute shortages of tillage facilities and inputs such as fertilisers, seed and chemicals, which could minimise yields. The shortage of these important inputs impacts negatively on land preparation and consequently on crop yields and production. Out of the national requirement of 600 000 tonnes of fertilisers, only less than a third of that has been produced. It means, therefore, that the downward trend in output, which started at the height of the land reforms in 2000, will continue. Reports that Iron Duke, Zimphos and Dorowa Minerals, the producers of essential inputs used in the manufacture of fertilisers, stopped production last month owing to power cuts and raw material shortages are another indictment on the country's failure to plan ahead. As it is, tobacco planting, which has begun in earnest, has been off to a rough start. Another bad year will be too ghastly to contemplate for the country, which is scrounging for foreign currency to cover food deficits and mitigate the inputs shortages. Government, which has declared war on inflation -- fingered as the number one enemy -- needs to get its act together, first by laying a strong foundation in agriculture upon which efforts to turn around the country's economy can be anchored. It is only logical that the country increases agricultural output to dampen underlying inflationary pressures since food commands the biggest weight on the consumer price index, used to measure inflation. Any prospects for a quick turnaround would be doomed for as long as agriculture, whose contribution to the gross domestic product had risen to about 18 percent, is not firing from all cylinders. Being the backbone of the country's economy, it is critical that agriculture gets all the support it requires. But what has been happening on the farms of late bears no resemblance to the zeal witnessed when thousands of landless blacks poured onto the farms, with so much promise to transform this critical sector. Some of the country's most productive farms have since been turned into braaing spots or leisure resorts where farmhouses have been converted into lodges of some sort for flirting chefs and their concubines. But it would be unfair to heap all the blame on the farmers, as government, banks and other institutions involved in agriculture have also taken their feet off the pedals. In the absence of support from these critical pillars, farmers have not received essential agricultural inputs on time, financial incentives have been little and far in between, extension services are inadequate and returns have been sub-economic. Poor pricing of inputs, power and foreign currency shortages have also combined to worsen the plight of both the farmers and institutions that support agriculture. In the end, it has become difficult for farmers to cover escalating overheads let alone reinvest in production, particularly now that the government has maintained a tight lid on prices. No wonder why most farmers have moved away from the production of crops such as maize, cotton, sugar, coffee and oil seed whose prices have been kept below economic levels. The import of all this is that the writing is already on the wall: Zimbabweans should brace for another poor harvest, which means more food imports, rampant inflation and rising poverty. Enditem